Is Lumen Technologies a turnaround in the making?

Here’s the straight, evidence‑based read on whether Lumen Technologies is truly a turnaround story in the making. The short answer: there are credible signs of a turnaround forming — but the risks remain enormous, and the story is far from guaranteed. The data paints a picture of a company in the middle of a high‑stakes reinvention rather than a completed recovery.

📈 Signals supporting a potential turnaround

1. Insider conviction from CEO Kate Johnson

Multiple sources confirm that CEO Kathleen “Kate” Johnson has repeatedly purchased Lumen stock on the open market — including a $500,000 buy on Feb 5, 2026, which triggered a 29% surge in the stock.This is not symbolic; she now holds nearly 12 million shares (Direct and Indirect). This level of insider buying is a strong indicator of internal confidence.

2. Strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure

Lumen is repositioning itself as an AI‑era connectivity provider, focusing on:

• Private Connectivity Fabric

• Edge compute

• Network‑as‑a‑Service

• Hyperscaler partnerships (Microsoft, Meta, Google Cloud, IBM)

The company has reportedly secured over $13B in contracts with hyperscalers.

This pivot is the core of the “Lumen 2.0” narrative — moving away from legacy copper and low‑margin consumer broadband toward enterprise AI networking.

3. Balance sheet actions and asset sales

Lumen has been aggressively:

• Paying down debt

• Refinancing term loans

• Selling non‑core assets (e.g., Mass Markets business to AT&T for $5.75B)

These moves improve liquidity and focus the company on enterprise and AI‑driven growth.

4. Growth in “new” revenue segments

While total revenue is declining, Lumen reports that 47% of enterprise revenue is in newer, growing products, which grew 7% last year.

This suggests the transformation is gaining traction inside the business even as legacy declines mask the progress.

📉 Signals challenging the turnaround narrative

1. Revenue and profit still declining

Despite the AI pivot, Lumen continues to post:

• Declining revenue

• Declining adjusted EBITDA

• Ongoing net losses

  
  

2. Heavy debt load

Lumen carries about $13B in long‑term debt, which constrains flexibility and raises refinancing risk.

3. Deep losses and impairments in 2025

In 2025, Lumen reported:

• $915M net loss

• $628M goodwill impairment

• Guidance for another year of significant losses

This undermines the credibility of a near‑term turnaround.

🧭 So is Lumen a turnaround story?

It’s a turnaround attempt with real momentum — but not yet a completed turnaround.

Bullish case (credible but not guaranteed)

• Strong insider buying

• Massive AI‑related contracts

• Strategic focus on enterprise and hyperscaler connectivity

• Divestitures and debt reduction

• Growth in next‑gen revenue segments

Bearish case (still very real)

• Heavy debt

• Continued net losses

• Legacy revenue declines outpacing growth segments

• Execution risk on the AI pivot

If the AI infrastructure strategy works and debt is managed, Lumen could indeed become a classic deep‑value turnaround.But if revenue declines continue or refinancing becomes difficult, the story could break down quickly.